Comments on: Gold, Silver, Metal Prices: Commentary – 1/11/2010 http://www.coinnews.net/2010/01/11/gold-silver-metal-prices-commentary-1112010/ CoinNews delivers breaking coin news, unique coin articles, coin news videos and free numismatic services for new and experienced coin collectors. Mon, 13 Feb 2012 22:25:46 +0000 hourly 1 By: Duff Minster http://www.coinnews.net/2010/01/11/gold-silver-metal-prices-commentary-1112010/comment-page-1/#comment-16032 Duff Minster Mon, 11 Jan 2010 21:27:29 +0000 http://www.coinnews.net/?p=2484#comment-16032 Personally I believe that there are other factors at work. I believe that while its true that the Carry Trade was enhanced by the good import/export numbers out of China, that growing realization that the demand side for the dollar is actually decreasing as well as the probability that the US will need to issue a whole lot more debt, even as its real estate market continues to need support of low interest rates as the shadow inventory from government forclosure moratoriums builds, and the massive wave of ALT-A, Options ARMS, Pick a Rate, and other non sub-prime related mortgage defaults picks up steam through 2010 and 2011, the conclusion is that despite the fact that we don't have good numbers on M3 because of foreign holdings of US dollar, real inflation continues to rise and so do commodity prices. Further, I believe that that there are some smoke signals comming from the precious metals derivatives markets and that, while still a minority of investors see it, there is likely a short squeeze somewhere on the horizon, first in silver and then in gold. Gold and silver appear to me to be the only to major commodities that did not surpass their long term inflation adjusted highs during lasts years commodity run up. Gold remains at under 1/2 its long term inflation adjusted high and silver is at only 1/6th! Those of us who follow GATA know why the "monetary metals" have not followed general commodity valuations. Continuous price supression by certain monetary authorities. The problem is that central banks have leased, forwared, swapped and sold a lot of their long term reserves and are moving from being net suppliers to becomming net buyers, removing supply instead of providing it, even as mining appears to have hit an asymptote. Duffminster Personally I believe that there are other factors at work. I believe that while its true that the Carry Trade was enhanced by the good import/export numbers out of China, that growing realization that the demand side for the dollar is actually decreasing as well as the probability that the US will need to issue a whole lot more debt, even as its real estate market continues to need support of low interest rates as the shadow inventory from government forclosure moratoriums builds, and the massive wave of ALT-A, Options ARMS, Pick a Rate, and other non sub-prime related mortgage defaults picks up steam through 2010 and 2011, the conclusion is that despite the fact that we don’t have good numbers on M3 because of foreign holdings of US dollar, real inflation continues to rise and so do commodity prices.

Further, I believe that that there are some smoke signals comming from the precious metals derivatives markets and that, while still a minority of investors see it, there is likely a short squeeze somewhere on the horizon, first in silver and then in gold.

Gold and silver appear to me to be the only to major commodities that did not surpass their long term inflation adjusted highs during lasts years commodity run up. Gold remains at under 1/2 its long term inflation adjusted high and silver is at only 1/6th!

Those of us who follow GATA know why the “monetary metals” have not followed general commodity valuations. Continuous price supression by certain monetary authorities. The problem is that central banks have leased, forwared, swapped and sold a lot of their long term reserves and are moving from being net suppliers to becomming net buyers, removing supply instead of providing it, even as mining appears to have hit an asymptote.

Duffminster

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